dfsforge / NFL forecasts

NFL stat forecasts

Sports: NFL · MLB · NBA · WNBA
Point estimates hide the shape. Every forecast below is a full outcome distribution - median, range, and the probability of clearing a line - learned from game logs and validated on a held-out season.
Plain English: instead of one guess per player, we publish the whole spread of likely outcomes - like a weather forecast that says "high of 75, probably between 68 and 82" instead of just "75". Click a stat below to expand it, then click a player for their full forecast page.

Passing YardsFITTED

Passing volume - the engine of quarterback scoring.
Top 25 by latest-season per-game average · holdout 80% coverage 81%.
PlayerPosTeamAvg/gm80% range
Matthew StaffordQBLAR277178-376
Jared GoffQBDET268170-368
Dak PrescottQBDAL268169-367
Drake MayeQBNE258164-357
Patrick MahomesQBKC256161-355
Carson WentzQBMIN243148-342
Brock PurdyQBSF241146-340
Jacoby BrissettQBARI240146-339
Daniel JonesQBIND239144-337
Sam DarnoldQBSEA238143-337
Trevor LawrenceQBJAX236141-335
Justin HerbertQBLAC233131-330
Caleb WilliamsQBCHI232130-329
Bo NixQBDEN231129-328
Josh AllenQBBUF229127-326
Joe BurrowQBCIN226124-323
Jordan LoveQBGB225123-322
Michael PenixQBATL220118-317
Baker MayfieldQBTB217115-314
C.J. StroudQBHOU217115-314
Tyler ShoughQBNO217115-314
Aaron RodgersQB20892-314
Geno SmithQBNYJ20286-308
Jalen HurtsQBPHI20286-308
Lamar JacksonQBBAL19681-303

CompletionsFITTED

Completed passes per game; steadier than yardage, tracks offense tempo.
Top 25 by latest-season per-game average · holdout 80% coverage 80%.
PlayerPosTeamAvg/gm80% range
Dak PrescottQBDAL2415-32
Jared GoffQBDET2316-30
Bo NixQBDEN2315-29
Matthew StaffordQBLAR2315-29
Jacoby BrissettQBARI2215-29
Patrick MahomesQBKC2215-29
Carson WentzQBMIN2215-29
Kyler MurrayQBMIN2215-29
Brock PurdyQBSF2214-28
Joe BurrowQBCIN2214-28
Justin HerbertQBLAC2112-29
Drake MayeQBNE2112-29
Aaron RodgersQB2012-29
Baker MayfieldQBTB2011-28
Geno SmithQBNYJ2011-28
Tyler ShoughQBNO2011-28
Daniel JonesQBIND2011-28
Trevor LawrenceQBJAX2011-28
Josh AllenQBBUF2011-28
C.J. StroudQBHOU2011-28
Caleb WilliamsQBCHI1911-27
Jordan LoveQBGB1911-27
Spencer RattlerQBNO1911-27
Joe FlaccoQBCIN1911-27
Bryce YoungQBCAR1910-26

Pass AttemptsFITTED

How often they drop back - the opportunity number behind every passing stat.
Top 25 by latest-season per-game average · holdout 80% coverage 80%.
PlayerPosTeamAvg/gm80% range
Bo NixQBDEN3625-47
Patrick MahomesQBKC3625-47
Dak PrescottQBDAL3524-46
Matthew StaffordQBLAR3524-46
Jacoby BrissettQBARI3525-44
Jared GoffQBDET3424-43
Carson WentzQBMIN3424-43
Caleb WilliamsQBCHI3323-43
Trevor LawrenceQBJAX3320-44
Joe BurrowQBCIN3219-43
Kyler MurrayQBMIN3219-43
Joe FlaccoQBCIN3219-43
Justin HerbertQBLAC3219-43
Baker MayfieldQBTB3219-43
Cam WardQBTEN3219-42
Brock PurdyQBSF3218-42
Aaron RodgersQB3118-42
Michael PenixQBATL3117-41
Brady CookQBNYJ3117-41
C.J. StroudQBHOU3017-41
Bryce YoungQBCAR3017-41
Geno SmithQBNYJ3017-41
Tyler ShoughQBNO3017-41
Daniel JonesQBIND3017-40
Jordan LoveQBGB2916-40

Rushing YardsFITTED

Ground production; for QBs this is the sneaky fantasy cheat code.
Top 25 by latest-season per-game average · holdout 80% coverage 78%.
PlayerPosTeamAvg/gm80% range
James CookRBBUF9549-146
Derrick HenryRBBAL9448-144
Jonathan TaylorRBIND9347-143
Bijan RobinsonRBATL8741-137
De'Von AchaneRBMIA8438-135
J.K. DobbinsRBDEN7731-127
Javonte WilliamsRBDAL7529-125
Kyren WilliamsRBLAR7427-124
Jahmyr GibbsRBDET7226-122
Saquon BarkleyRBPHI7125-121
Christian McCaffreyRBSF7125-121
D'Andre SwiftRBCHI6822-118
Breece HallRBNYJ6720-117
Travis EtienneRBNO6526-109
Tony PollardRBTEN6424-107
Rico DowdleRBPIT6324-107
Josh JacobsRBGB6222-105
Omarion HamptonRBLAC6121-104
Kenneth WalkerRBKC6021-104
Chase BrownRBCIN6021-103
Jaylen WarrenRBPIT6020-103
Quinshon JudkinsRBCLE5920-102
Bucky IrvingRBTB5919-102
Ashton JeantyRBLV5718-101
TreVeyon HendersonRBNE5414-97

CarriesFITTED

Carries per game - workload first, results second.
Top 25 by latest-season per-game average · holdout 80% coverage 87%.
PlayerPosTeamAvg/gm80% range
Jonathan TaylorRBIND1911-28
Christian McCaffreyRBSF1811-27
James CookRBBUF1811-27
Derrick HenryRBBAL1810-27
Saquon BarkleyRBPHI1810-26
Bucky IrvingRBTB1710-26
Bijan RobinsonRBATL179-25
Quinshon JudkinsRBCLE169-25
Javonte WilliamsRBDAL168-24
Ashton JeantyRBLV168-24
Josh JacobsRBGB168-24
J.K. DobbinsRBDEN158-24
Travis EtienneRBNO158-24
Kyren WilliamsRBLAR158-24
Breece HallRBNYJ158-24
De'Von AchaneRBMIA158-22
Jahmyr GibbsRBDET148-21
Tony PollardRBTEN147-21
D'Andre SwiftRBCHI147-21
Rico DowdleRBPIT147-21
Omarion HamptonRBLAC147-21
Chase BrownRBCIN147-21
Jaylen WarrenRBPIT136-20
Kenneth WalkerRBKC136-20
Cam SkatteboRBNYG12.65.9-19.7

Receiving YardsFITTED

Receiving yardage - big-play receivers live here.
Top 25 by latest-season per-game average · holdout 80% coverage 76%.
PlayerPosTeamAvg/gm80% range
Puka NacuaWRLAR10756-163
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWRSEA10554-161
Ja'Marr ChaseWRCIN8837-144
George PickensWRDAL8433-140
CeeDee LambWRDAL8331-138
Amon-Ra St. BrownWRDET8231-138
Drake LondonWRATL7725-132
Nico CollinsWRHOU7423-130
Trey McBrideTEARI7335-115
Chris OlaveWRNO7321-128
Rashee RiceWRKC7120-127
Zay FlowersWRBAL7120-127
Malik NabersWRNYG6816-123
A.J. BrownWRPHI6715-123
Alec PierceWRIND6715-123
Tyreek HillWR6615-122
Jameson WilliamsWRDET6614-121
Wan'Dale RobinsonWRTEN6321-114
Justin JeffersonWRMIN6219-112
Tucker KraftTEGB6124-103
Christian WatsonWRGB6118-112
Courtland SuttonWRDEN6017-110
Tetairoa McMillanWRCAR6017-110
Stefon DiggsWR6017-110
DeVonta SmithWRPHI5917-110

ReceptionsFITTED

Catches per game - the PPR heartbeat, one point each in most formats.
Top 25 by latest-season per-game average · holdout 80% coverage 77%.
PlayerPosTeamAvg/gm80% range
Puka NacuaWRLAR8.14.6-11.8
Ja'Marr ChaseWRCIN7.84.4-11.6
Trey McBrideTEARI7.44.1-11.1
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWRSEA7.03.6-10.8
Amon-Ra St. BrownWRDET6.93.4-10.6
Rashee RiceWRKC6.63.2-10.4
Chris OlaveWRNO6.22.8-10.0
Christian McCaffreyRBSF6.03.5-8.9
CeeDee LambWRDAL5.82.3-9.5
Wan'Dale RobinsonWRTEN5.82.3-9.5
Drake LondonWRATL5.72.2-9.4
George PickensWRDAL5.52.0-9.2
Brock BowersTELV5.32.0-9.0
Tyreek HillWR5.21.8-9.0
A.J. BrownWRPHI5.21.8-9.0
George KittleTESF5.21.9-8.9
Kyle PittsTEATL5.21.9-8.9
Garrett WilsonWRNYJ5.11.7-8.9
Zay FlowersWRBAL5.11.6-8.8
Stefon DiggsWR5.01.6-8.8
Justin JeffersonWRMIN4.92.0-8.2
Jake FergusonTEDAL4.81.5-8.5
Dalton SchultzTEHOU4.81.5-8.5
Keenan AllenWR4.81.8-8.0
Nico CollinsWRHOU4.71.7-8.0

TargetsFITTED

How often the ball comes their way - opportunity before outcome.
Top 25 by latest-season per-game average · holdout 80% coverage 77%.
PlayerPosTeamAvg/gm80% range
Ja'Marr ChaseWRCIN11.67.3-16.3
Puka NacuaWRLAR10.46.2-15.2
Amon-Ra St. BrownWRDET10.15.9-14.9
Trey McBrideTEARI9.96.2-14.4
Rashee RiceWRKC9.85.5-14.5
Chris OlaveWRNO9.85.5-14.5
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWRSEA9.65.4-14.4
Drake LondonWRATL9.35.1-14.1
CeeDee LambWRDAL9.04.8-13.8
Malik NabersWRNYG8.84.5-13.5
Wan'Dale RobinsonWRTEN8.84.5-13.5
Garrett WilsonWRNYJ8.44.2-13.2
Justin JeffersonWRMIN8.34.1-13.1
Davante AdamsWRLAR8.13.9-12.9
A.J. BrownWRPHI8.13.8-12.8
George PickensWRDAL8.13.8-12.8
Nico CollinsWRHOU8.03.8-12.8
Mike EvansWRSF7.83.5-12.5
Christian McCaffreyRBSF7.64.7-11.1
Rome OdunzeWRCHI7.53.6-12.0
Emeka EgbukaWRTB7.53.6-12.0
Michael WilsonWRARI7.43.5-11.9
Courtland SuttonWRDEN7.33.4-11.8
Tyreek HillWR7.23.3-11.8
Tetairoa McMillanWRCAR7.23.3-11.7
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts