dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Sam Darnold passing yards

Sam Darnold: passing yardsFITTED MODEL

QB · SEA · NFL · baseline 238/game (2025, 17 games)
235
Median
143-337
80% range
184-288
50% range
372
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

143235337
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

passing yardsProbability
100+96%
150+88%
200+69%
250+44%
300+19%
350+8%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 560 QB passing yards games, our 80% range covered 80.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Sam Darnold player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts