Sam DarnoldFITTED MODEL

QB · SEA · NFL

12.5

Projection

Floor (p10)

Ceiling (p90)

21%

Boom (1.5x)

24%

Bust (0.6x)

14.3

Avg (last 15)

Stat forecasts

passing yards · completions · pass attempts · rushing yards · carries

Full outcome distributions - median, 80% range, and the chance of clearing a line.

Recent games

Date	Opp	FP	Pass Yds	Rush Yds
2025 wk 18	@ SF	8.8	198	9
2025 wk 17	@ CAR	6.1	147	2
2025 wk 16	vs LAR	19.5	270	7
2025 wk 15	vs IND	11.3	271	5
2025 wk 14	@ ATL	22.3	249	23
2025 wk 13	vs MIN	3.1	128	0
2025 wk 12	@ TEN	17.7	244	-1
2025 wk 11	@ LAR	4.3	279	11
2025 wk 10	vs ARI	4.9	178	-2
2025 wk 9	@ WAS	27.2	330	0
2025 wk 7	vs HOU	8.6	213	1
2025 wk 6	@ JAX	20.0	295	2
2025 wk 5	vs TB	27.6	341	0
2025 wk 4	@ ARI	16.1	242	24
2025 wk 3	vs NO	16.7	218	0

Projections are dfsforge model output (current form blend); floor/ceiling are the 10th/90th percentile of our holdout-validated outcome distribution. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts