dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Sam Darnold completions

Sam Darnold: completionsFITTED MODEL

QB · SEA · NFL · baseline 19/game (2025, 17 games)
20
Median
10-26
80% range
16-23
50% range
28
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

102026
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

completionsProbability
5+95%
10+90%
15+80%
20+48%
25+16%
30+3%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 562 QB completions games, our 80% range covered 79.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Sam Darnold player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts