dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Trey McBride targets

Trey McBride: targetsFITTED MODEL

TE · ARI · NFL · baseline 9.9/game (2025, 17 games)
9.6
Median
6.2-14.4
80% range
7.7-11.7
50% range
15.9
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

6.29.614.4
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

targetsProbability
4.0+100%
6.0+92%
8.0+71%
10.0+43%
12.0+23%
14.0+11%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 732 TE targets games, our 80% range covered 84.0% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Trey McBride player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts