dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Jonathan Taylor carries

Jonathan Taylor: carriesFITTED MODEL

RB · IND · NFL · baseline 19/game (2025, 17 games)
19
Median
11-28
80% range
14-23
50% range
30
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

111928
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

carriesProbability
5+100%
10+94%
15+71%
20+42%
25+18%
30+5%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 939 RB carries games, our 80% range covered 79.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Jonathan Taylor player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts