dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Jaylen Warren carries

Jaylen Warren: carriesFITTED MODEL

RB · PIT · NFL · baseline 13/game (2025, 16 games)
13
Median
6-20
80% range
9-17
50% range
23
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

61320
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

carriesProbability
8+83%
10+72%
12+58%
14+44%
16+28%
18+19%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 939 RB carries games, our 80% range covered 79.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Jaylen Warren player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts