dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Christian McCaffrey receptions

Christian McCaffrey: receptionsFITTED MODEL

RB · SF · NFL · baseline 6.0/game (2025, 17 games)
5.8
Median
3.5-8.9
80% range
4.5-7.2
50% range
10.2
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

3.55.88.9
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

receptionsProbability
3.0+95%
4.0+83%
5.0+66%
6.0+45%
7.0+28%
8.0+16%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 637 RB receptions games, our 80% range covered 77.4% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Christian McCaffrey player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts