dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Malik Nabers targets

Malik Nabers: targetsFITTED MODEL

WR · NYG · NFL · baseline 8.8/game (2025, 4 games)
8.6
Median
4.5-13.5
80% range
6.3-10.7
50% range
14.8
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

4.58.613.5
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

targetsProbability
4.0+92%
6.0+78%
8.0+56%
10.0+33%
12.0+16%
14.0+8%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 1739 WR targets games, our 80% range covered 81.1% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Malik Nabers player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts