dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Ja'Marr Chase targets

Ja'Marr Chase: targetsFITTED MODEL

Name: Ja'Marr Chase targets outcome distribution
Creator: dfsforge

WR · CIN · NFL · baseline 11.6/game (2025, 16 games)

11.4

Median

7.3-16.3

80% range

9.1-13.5

50% range

17.6

Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

targets	Probability
6.0+	95%
8.0+	85%
10.0+	65%
12.0+	43%
14.0+	21%
16.0+	11%

Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 1739 WR targets games, our 80% range covered 81.1% of actual outcomes (target 80%).

Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.

More: Ja'Marr Chase player page · all NFL forecasts

Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts