dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Matthew Stafford passing yards

Matthew Stafford: passing yardsFITTED MODEL

QB · LAR · NFL · baseline 277/game (2025, 17 games)
274
Median
178-376
80% range
231-331
50% range
399
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

178274376
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

passing yardsProbability
150+95%
200+85%
250+66%
300+38%
350+18%
400+5%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 560 QB passing yards games, our 80% range covered 80.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Matthew Stafford player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts