dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Patrick Mahomes passing yards

Patrick Mahomes: passing yardsFITTED MODEL

QB · KC · NFL · baseline 256/game (2025, 14 games)
254
Median
161-355
80% range
203-306
50% range
390
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

161254355
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

passing yardsProbability
150+92%
200+76%
250+52%
300+29%
350+11%
400+4%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 560 QB passing yards games, our 80% range covered 80.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Patrick Mahomes player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts