dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Ja'Marr Chase receptions

Ja'Marr Chase: receptionsFITTED MODEL

WR · CIN · NFL · baseline 7.8/game (2025, 16 games)
7.6
Median
4.4-11.6
80% range
5.9-9.5
50% range
12.9
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

4.47.611.6
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

receptionsProbability
2.0+99%
4.0+92%
6.0+74%
8.0+44%
10.0+20%
12.0+8%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 1555 WR receptions games, our 80% range covered 82.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Ja'Marr Chase player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts