dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Nico Collins receiving yards

Nico Collins: receiving yardsFITTED MODEL

WR · HOU · NFL · baseline 74/game (2025, 15 games)
69
Median
23-130
80% range
42-102
50% range
150
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

2369130
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

receiving yardsProbability
25+89%
50+68%
75+44%
100+27%
125+12%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 1868 WR receiving yards games, our 80% range covered 81.4% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Nico Collins player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts