dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Jalen Hurts passing yards

Jalen Hurts: passing yardsFITTED MODEL

QB · PHI · NFL · baseline 202/game (2025, 16 games)
209
Median
86-308
80% range
153-257
50% range
330
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

86209308
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

passing yardsProbability
100+88%
150+76%
200+54%
250+29%
300+12%
350+2%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 560 QB passing yards games, our 80% range covered 80.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Jalen Hurts player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts