dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Ja'Marr Chase receiving yards

Ja'Marr Chase: receiving yardsFITTED MODEL

WR · CIN · NFL · baseline 88/game (2025, 16 games)
83
Median
37-144
80% range
56-116
50% range
164
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

3783144
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

receiving yardsProbability
25+97%
50+80%
75+58%
100+36%
125+19%
150+8%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 1868 WR receiving yards games, our 80% range covered 81.4% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Ja'Marr Chase player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts