dfsforge / NFL forecasts / C.J. Stroud pass attempts

C.J. Stroud: pass attemptsFITTED MODEL

QB · HOU · NFL · baseline 30/game (2025, 14 games)
31
Median
17-41
80% range
25-37
50% range
44
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

173141
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pass attemptsProbability
20+85%
25+74%
30+56%
35+34%
40+13%
45+3%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 566 QB pass attempts games, our 80% range covered 79.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: C.J. Stroud player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts