dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Michael Wilson targets

Michael Wilson: targetsFITTED MODEL

WR · ARI · NFL · baseline 7.4/game (2025, 17 games)
7.0
Median
3.5-11.9
80% range
5.1-9.3
50% range
13.4
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

3.57.011.9
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

targetsProbability
2.0+98%
4.0+86%
6.0+64%
8.0+37%
10.0+20%
12.0+10%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 1739 WR targets games, our 80% range covered 81.1% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Michael Wilson player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts