dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Emeka Egbuka targets

Emeka Egbuka: targetsFITTED MODEL

Name: Emeka Egbuka targets outcome distribution
Creator: dfsforge

WR · TB · NFL · baseline 7.5/game (2025, 17 games)

7.1

Median

3.6-12.0

80% range

5.2-9.4

50% range

13.5

Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

targets	Probability
2.0+	98%
4.0+	87%
6.0+	65%
8.0+	38%
10.0+	21%
12.0+	10%

Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 1739 WR targets games, our 80% range covered 81.1% of actual outcomes (target 80%).

Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.

More: Emeka Egbuka player page · all NFL forecasts

Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts