dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Tony Pollard carries

Tony Pollard: carriesFITTED MODEL

RB · TEN · NFL · baseline 14/game (2025, 17 games)
14
Median
7-21
80% range
11-18
50% range
24
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

71421
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

carriesProbability
10+78%
12+65%
14+52%
16+36%
18+24%
20+15%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 939 RB carries games, our 80% range covered 79.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Tony Pollard player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts