dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Amon-Ra St. Brown receiving yards

Amon-Ra St. Brown: receiving yardsFITTED MODEL

WR · DET · NFL · baseline 82/game (2025, 17 games)
77
Median
31-138
80% range
50-110
50% range
158
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

3177138
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

receiving yardsProbability
25+94%
50+75%
75+52%
100+32%
125+16%
150+7%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 1868 WR receiving yards games, our 80% range covered 81.4% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Amon-Ra St. Brown player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts