dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Carson Wentz passing yards

Carson Wentz: passing yardsFITTED MODEL

QB · MIN · NFL · baseline 243/game (2025, 5 games)
241
Median
148-342
80% range
190-293
50% range
377
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

148241342
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

passing yardsProbability
100+97%
150+89%
200+71%
250+46%
300+22%
350+9%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 560 QB passing yards games, our 80% range covered 80.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Carson Wentz player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts