dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Drake Maye passing yards

Drake Maye: passing yardsFITTED MODEL

QB · NE · NFL · baseline 258/game (2025, 17 games)
256
Median
164-357
80% range
205-309
50% range
392
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

164256357
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

passing yardsProbability
150+93%
200+77%
250+53%
300+30%
350+12%
400+4%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 560 QB passing yards games, our 80% range covered 80.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Drake Maye player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts