dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Bo Nix carries

Bo Nix: carriesFITTED MODEL

QB · DEN · NFL · baseline 4.9/game (2025, 17 games)
4.8
Median
1.5-8.3
80% range
3.1-6.4
50% range
9.4
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1.54.88.3
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

carriesProbability
2.0+86%
4.0+64%
6.0+30%
8.0+12%
10.0+3%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 218 QB carries games, our 80% range covered 86.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Bo Nix player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts