dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Trey Lance carries

Trey Lance: carriesFITTED MODEL

QB · LAC · NFL · baseline 4.2/game (2025, 4 games)
4.2
Median
0.8-7.7
80% range
2.5-5.8
50% range
8.8
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.84.27.7
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

carriesProbability
2.0+79%
4.0+53%
6.0+23%
8.0+8%
10.0+2%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 218 QB carries games, our 80% range covered 86.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Trey Lance player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts