dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Derek Carr passing yards

Derek Carr: passing yardsFITTED MODEL

QB · FA · NFL · baseline 214/game (2024, 10 games)
223
Median
112-311
80% range
161-269
50% range
335
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

112223311
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

passing yardsProbability
100+91%
150+78%
200+61%
250+37%
300+13%
350+3%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 560 QB passing yards games, our 80% range covered 80.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2024 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Derek Carr player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts