dfsforge / NFL forecasts / J.J. McCarthy passing yards

J.J. McCarthy: passing yardsFITTED MODEL

QB · MIN · NFL · baseline 163/game (2025, 10 games)
175
Median
20-281
80% range
90-234
50% range
316
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

20175281
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

passing yardsProbability
50+82%
100+73%
150+61%
200+38%
250+19%
300+7%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 560 QB passing yards games, our 80% range covered 80.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: J.J. McCarthy player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts