dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Tyler Shough carries

Tyler Shough: carriesFITTED MODEL

QB · NO · NFL · baseline 4.1/game (2025, 11 games)
4.0
Median
0.7-7.5
80% range
2.3-5.6
50% range
8.6
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.74.07.5
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

carriesProbability
2.0+78%
4.0+50%
6.0+21%
8.0+7%
10.0+2%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 218 QB carries games, our 80% range covered 86.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Tyler Shough player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts