dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Sam LaPorta receptions

Sam LaPorta: receptionsFITTED MODEL

TE · DET · NFL · baseline 4.4/game (2025, 9 games)
4.2
Median
1.2-8.2
80% range
2.5-6.1
50% range
9.3
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1.24.28.2
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

receptionsProbability
2.0+82%
3.0+68%
4.0+54%
5.0+39%
6.0+26%
7.0+17%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 722 TE receptions games, our 80% range covered 82.3% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Sam LaPorta player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts