dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Justin Herbert rushing yards

Justin Herbert: rushing yardsFITTED MODEL

QB · LAC · NFL · baseline 31/game (2025, 16 games)
27
Median
9-58
80% range
17-44
50% range
68
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

92758
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

rushing yardsProbability
10+89%
20+69%
30+45%
40+29%
50+18%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 278 QB rushing yards games, our 80% range covered 77.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Justin Herbert player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts