dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Nelson Agholor targets

Nelson Agholor: targetsFITTED MODEL

WR · FA · NFL · baseline 2.2/game (2024, 13 games)
1.8
Median
0.1-4.8
80% range
0.7-3.4
50% range
6.0
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.11.84.8
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

targetsProbability
1.0+68%
2.0+46%
3.0+30%
4.0+19%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 1739 WR targets games, our 80% range covered 81.1% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2024 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Nelson Agholor player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts