dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Kyler Murray carries

Kyler Murray: carriesFITTED MODEL

QB · MIN · NFL · baseline 5.8/game (2025, 5 games)
5.7
Median
1.3-10.5
80% range
3.1-8.3
50% range
11.7
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1.35.710.5
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

carriesProbability
2.0+85%
4.0+67%
6.0+45%
8.0+27%
10.0+13%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 218 QB carries games, our 80% range covered 86.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Kyler Murray player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts