Connelly EarlyFITTED MODEL

P · BOS · MLB

14.6

Projection

1.8

Floor (p10)

26.5

Ceiling (p90)

23%

Boom (1.5x)

26%

Bust (0.6x)

14.8

Avg (last 15)

Stat forecasts

strikeouts (pitcher)

Full outcome distributions - median, 80% range, and the chance of clearing a line.

Recent games

Date	Opp	FP	H	TB	RBI	K (P)
2026-06-30	vs WSH	16.0	-	-	-	5
2026-06-25	vs NYY	23.9	-	-	-	9
2026-06-20	@ SEA	21.3	-	-	-	7
2026-06-14	vs TEX	-3.3	-	-	-	3
2026-06-08	@ TB	12.5	-	-	-	6
2026-06-02	vs BAL	11.8	-	-	-	6
2026-05-27	vs ATL	25.6	-	-	-	7
2026-05-20	@ KC	14.1	-	-	-	5
2026-05-15	@ ATL	15.7	-	-	-	6
2026-05-08	vs TB	28.1	-	-	-	8
2026-05-02	vs HOU	-0.4	-	-	-	3
2026-04-26	@ BAL	16.0	-	-	-	4
2026-04-21	vs NYY	8.6	-	-	-	4
2026-04-15	@ MIN	18.5	-	-	-	5
2026-04-10	@ STL	12.9	-	-	-	5

Projections are dfsforge model output (current form blend); floor/ceiling are the 10th/90th percentile of our holdout-validated outcome distribution. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts