dfsforge / MLB forecasts / Connelly Early strikeouts (pitcher)

Connelly Early: strikeouts (pitcher)FITTED MODEL

P · BOS · MLB · baseline 5.5/game (2026, 17 games)
5.3
Median
2.4-8.8
80% range
3.7-7.0
50% range
9.8
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

2.45.38.8
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

strikeouts (pitcher)Probability
3.0+84%
4.0+71%
5.0+55%
6.0+40%
7.0+25%
8.0+16%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 2331 P strikeouts (pitcher) games, our 80% range covered 81.1% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Connelly Early player page · all MLB forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts