AJ Smith-ShawverFITTED MODEL

P · ATL · MLB

11.9

Projection

-0.8

Floor (p10)

23.9

Ceiling (p90)

28%

Boom (1.5x)

30%

Bust (0.6x)

12.2

Avg (last 10)

Stat forecasts

strikeouts (pitcher)

Full outcome distributions - median, 80% range, and the chance of clearing a line.

Recent games

Date	Opp	FP	H	TB	RBI	K (P)
2025-05-29	@ PHI	1.6	-	-	-	1
2025-05-22	@ WSH	-11.8	-	-	-	1
2025-05-15	vs WSH	22.5	-	-	-	6
2025-05-10	@ PIT	20.6	-	-	-	7
2025-05-05	vs CIN	25.0	-	-	-	5
2025-04-29	@ COL	15.0	-	-	-	5
2025-04-12	@ TB	16.4	-	-	-	7
2025-04-05	vs MIA	10.5	-	-	-	6
2025-03-30	@ SD	7.6	-	-	-	4
2024-05-23	@ CHC	14.8	-	-	-	4

Projections are dfsforge model output (current form blend); floor/ceiling are the 10th/90th percentile of our holdout-validated outcome distribution. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts