dfsforge / MLB forecasts / AJ Smith-Shawver strikeouts (pitcher)

AJ Smith-Shawver: strikeouts (pitcher)FITTED MODEL

P · ATL · MLB · baseline 4.7/game (2025, 9 games)
4.7
Median
1.8-7.9
80% range
2.8-6.3
50% range
8.9
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1.84.77.9
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

strikeouts (pitcher)Probability
2.0+87%
3.0+73%
4.0+60%
5.0+43%
6.0+28%
7.0+18%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 2331 P strikeouts (pitcher) games, our 80% range covered 81.1% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: AJ Smith-Shawver player page · all MLB forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts