dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Jonnu Smith targets

Jonnu Smith: targetsFITTED MODEL

TE · FA · NFL · baseline 3.2/game (2025, 17 games)
2.7
Median
0.7-6.1
80% range
1.6-4.3
50% range
7.6
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.72.76.1
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

targetsProbability
1.0+85%
2.0+66%
3.0+44%
4.0+29%
5.0+18%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 732 TE targets games, our 80% range covered 84.0% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Jonnu Smith player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts