dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Harold Fannin targets

Harold Fannin: targetsFITTED MODEL

TE · CLE · NFL · baseline 6.7/game (2025, 16 games)
6.3
Median
2.9-11.1
80% range
4.4-8.5
50% range
12.7
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

2.96.311.1
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

targetsProbability
2.0+98%
4.0+80%
6.0+55%
8.0+30%
10.0+15%
12.0+7%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 732 TE targets games, our 80% range covered 84.0% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Harold Fannin player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts