dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Brandon Aiyuk targets

Brandon Aiyuk: targetsFITTED MODEL

WR · SF · NFL · baseline 6.7/game (2024, 7 games)
6.3
Median
2.8-11.2
80% range
4.4-8.6
50% range
12.7
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

2.86.311.2
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

targetsProbability
2.0+95%
4.0+79%
6.0+55%
8.0+30%
10.0+16%
12.0+7%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 1739 WR targets games, our 80% range covered 81.1% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2024 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Brandon Aiyuk player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts