dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Mark Andrews receptions

Mark Andrews: receptionsFITTED MODEL

TE · BAL · NFL · baseline 2.8/game (2025, 17 games)
2.7
Median
0.7-5.7
80% range
1.4-4.2
50% range
6.7
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.72.75.7
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

receptionsProbability
1.0+83%
2.0+59%
3.0+38%
4.0+27%
5.0+16%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 722 TE receptions games, our 80% range covered 82.3% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Mark Andrews player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts