dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Malik Willis carries

Malik Willis: carriesFITTED MODEL

QB · MIA · NFL · baseline 5.5/game (2025, 4 games)
5.4
Median
1.0-10.2
80% range
2.8-8.0
50% range
11.4
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1.05.410.2
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

carriesProbability
2.0+82%
4.0+65%
6.0+40%
8.0+25%
10.0+11%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 218 QB carries games, our 80% range covered 86.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Malik Willis player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts