dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Dillon Gabriel passing yards

Dillon Gabriel: passing yardsFITTED MODEL

QB · CLE · NFL · baseline 94/game (2025, 10 games)
105
Median
-20-212
80% range
20-164
50% range
247
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

-20105212
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

passing yardsProbability
50+70%
100+53%
150+31%
200+13%
250+5%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 560 QB passing yards games, our 80% range covered 80.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Dillon Gabriel player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts