dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Joe Mixon targets

Joe Mixon: targetsFITTED MODEL

RB · FA · NFL · baseline 3.7/game (2024, 14 games)
3.5
Median
1.2-6.4
80% range
2.2-5.4
50% range
7.0
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1.23.56.4
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

targetsProbability
1.0+92%
2.0+79%
3.0+60%
4.0+42%
5.0+30%
6.0+16%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 646 RB targets games, our 80% range covered 76.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2024 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Joe Mixon player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts