dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Joe Mixon receptions

Joe Mixon: receptionsFITTED MODEL

RB · FA · NFL · baseline 2.6/game (2024, 14 games)
2.3
Median
0.2-5.1
80% range
1.1-3.6
50% range
5.8
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.22.35.1
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

receptionsProbability
1.0+79%
2.0+59%
3.0+40%
4.0+20%
5.0+10%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 637 RB receptions games, our 80% range covered 77.4% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2024 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Joe Mixon player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts