dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Christian Kirk targets

Christian Kirk: targetsFITTED MODEL

WR · SF · NFL · baseline 4.7/game (2025, 11 games)
4.3
Median
1.2-8.6
80% range
2.6-6.5
50% range
10.0
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1.24.38.6
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

targetsProbability
2.0+82%
4.0+54%
6.0+30%
8.0+14%
10.0+5%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 1739 WR targets games, our 80% range covered 81.1% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Christian Kirk player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts