dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Aaron Jones rushing yards

Aaron Jones: rushing yardsFITTED MODEL

RB · MIN · NFL · baseline 46/game (2025, 12 games)
40
Median
9-92
80% range
21-66
50% range
111
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

94092
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

rushing yardsProbability
20+76%
40+50%
60+31%
80+16%
100+8%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 977 RB rushing yards games, our 80% range covered 77.6% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Aaron Jones player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts