dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Aaron Jones carries

Aaron Jones: carriesFITTED MODEL

RB · MIN · NFL · baseline 11.0/game (2025, 12 games)
10.5
Median
3.6-19.0
80% range
6.8-14.7
50% range
21.2
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

3.610.519.0
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

carriesProbability
5.0+84%
10.0+53%
15.0+23%
20.0+7%
25.0+1%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 939 RB carries games, our 80% range covered 79.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Aaron Jones player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts