dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Dylan Sampson receptions

Dylan Sampson: receptionsFITTED MODEL

RB · CLE · NFL · baseline 2.2/game (2025, 15 games)
2.0
Median
0.1-5.0
80% range
1.0-3.5
50% range
5.3
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.12.05.0
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

receptionsProbability
1.0+75%
2.0+48%
3.0+31%
4.0+19%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 637 RB receptions games, our 80% range covered 77.4% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Dylan Sampson player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts