dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Jerry Jeudy receptions

Jerry Jeudy: receptionsFITTED MODEL

WR · CLE · NFL · baseline 2.9/game (2025, 17 games)
2.6
Median
0.8-5.5
80% range
1.6-4.0
50% range
6.3
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.82.65.5
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

receptionsProbability
1.0+87%
2.0+65%
3.0+41%
4.0+25%
5.0+14%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 1555 WR receptions games, our 80% range covered 82.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Jerry Jeudy player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts