dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Samaje Perine carries

Samaje Perine: carriesFITTED MODEL

RB · CIN · NFL · baseline 5.6/game (2025, 15 games)
4.5
Median
1.2-11.5
80% range
2.5-7.9
50% range
13.9
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1.24.511.5
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

carriesProbability
2.0+80%
4.0+55%
6.0+37%
8.0+25%
10.0+15%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 939 RB carries games, our 80% range covered 79.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Samaje Perine player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts